Gingrich is done

Steve Watson
December 30, 2011

Two new polls out of Iowa have Ron Paul and Mitt Romney within one or two percentage points of each other with just four days to go until the Iowa caucuses.

The polls, conducted on December 27 and 28 also appear to confirm that Newt Gingrich now has no chance of victory in the The Hawkeye State.

The first, from Rasmussen, has Romney at 23% and Paul at 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry earning 13% of the vote each.

The Poll also finds that while Romney leads Paul by 11 percentage points among independents, Paul has a significant lead over Romney among independents, democrats and other voters by 23 points.

Therefore, if the Republican turn out is strong on caucus day, Romney will undoubtedly benefit. Given that Paul’s supporters are the most dedicated there are and will turn out no matter what, a lower Republican turn out will likely edge Paul to victory.

The poll also finds that just over half of all caucus goers say they have made a final decision, while 41% say they may change their mind before January 3rd.

The second poll, conducted by NBC News-Marist, shows similar results with Romney at 23% and Paul at 21%. Those numbers are based on interest, chance of voting and past participation.

Santorum finds himself at 15% in the poll, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 14%, Gingrich at 13% and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Gingrich’s support has plummeted. The last NBC-Marist poll, conducted in late November, had Gingrich in the lead among likely caucus-goers at 28%. That figure has more than halved and he now finds himself in 5th place.

According to the poll, 35% of likely caucus-goers now say Gingrich would be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee, a 19-point increase on last month’s figures.

Gingrich’s decline has also meant that Ron Paul has now moved into clear second place in New Hampshire. A new Public Policy poll out of New Hampshire has Romney at 36% to 21% for Paul and 13% for Gingrich.


Steve Watson is the London based writer and editor for Alex Jones’, He has a Masters Degree in International Relations from the School of Politics at The University of Nottingham in England.

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