Marine Le Pen’s chances of defeating establishment favourite Emmanuel Macron appear to be improving.

The latest IFOP poll has Le Pen trailing 42% versus 58% in a hypothetical match-up, the highest they have ever had her in such an election.

But if you drill a little into the numbers, Macron’s support is far more vulnerable. 33% of those currently planning to vote for him still say that they could change their mind.

It is a stark contrast to Le Pen’s support base, with 87% committing to vote for her no matter what now.

Also key will be how other vote bases redistribute after the first round of the electoral contest. Conservative Francois Fillon’s current supporters break almost evenly, with 34% backing Le Pen and 37% who would vote for Macron.

This is a contest growing tighter by the week. If the establishment lose in France, the EU is finished.

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