The shrinkage of support for the Democrat Party’s presumptive presidential candidate Joe Biden among young black and Hispanic likely voters in November’s election has caught the attention of Harry Enten of CNN.
Enten is one of the new breed of political journalists specializing in data-driven reporting and was one of the first people Nate Silver hired when he relaunched his FiveThirtyEight polling website under the auspices of ESPN in 2013. He not only writes for CNN but also produces The Forecast Fest, which focuses on the 2020 presidential election.
Noted Enten on Tuesday, “Trump continues to do something perhaps unexpectedly among Black voters: hold his own against Biden relative to many people’s expectations.”
Those expectations were that Biden would romp over Trump in the general election among black and brown voters, who would vote just the way they did in 2016 in favor of Clinton over Trump.
Enten has reviewed more than 1,000 live interviews in order, he says, to “assess Black voter sentiment in the presidential race … since the [George Floyd] protests began.” He found that President Trump is “picking up a lot of the vote that went to third-party candidates” in 2016. “Given the way margins of error work,” said Enten, “this … improvement for Trump from 2016 is statistically significant.”
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