Julie Satow
New York Times

January 25, 2012

Experts have warned of a rash of recapitalizations, refinancings and building sales. In New York City alone, nearly $70 billion worth of commercial mortgages that were bundled together and issued as collateral for bonds are maturing this year. Of those, $26 billion, or 37.4 percent, are five-year loans that were originated during the height of the real estate bubble, when underwriting standards were loosest, according to data from the research firm Trepp LLC.

These include loans on prominent properties, including the Manhattan Mall, with $232 million maturing, and the Jumeirah Essex House, with a $180 million loan, according to Trepp.

“These loans are going to have the hardest time being refinanced since they were underwritten when property values and revenues were far higher,” said Thomas A. Fink, a managing director at Trepp. “We are going to see a wave of loans maturing this year, then again in 2014 and 2017, when the 7- and 10-year deals underwritten during the bubble mature.”

Most large commercial mortgage loans are typically not self-amortizing — that is, they require a balloon payment upon maturity.

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