A study by leading health researchers in the US has concluded that 80,000 Americans are expected to die from coronavirus by this Summer, even if social distancing measures are observed.
The research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, found that national hospital capacity is likely to be overwhelmed by the second week of April.
The lower end of death toll estimate is 38,000, with the worst case scenario expected to exceed 162,000 deaths within four months.
Our state-by-state data analysis – based on observed death rates and existing #socialdistancing measures – estimates that 81,000 will die from #COVID19 in the next four months. These estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 deaths.
Learn more➡️https://t.co/dMB66MRylw pic.twitter.com/Ej0JuZG3ch
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 26, 2020
#BREAKING: Researchers from @IHME_UW find demand for beds in US hospital intensive care units is likely to far exceed capacity for #COVID19 patients as early as the second week of April. Press release➡️https://t.co/UvHE3cBPWA pic.twitter.com/LBkGc891cg
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 26, 2020
Our analysis on #COVID19 predicts demand for hospital services in each state, including the need for ventilators and both general hospital beds and ICU beds. The forecasts show that demand for beds will exceed capacity as early as the 2nd week of April. https://t.co/dMB66N99K6 pic.twitter.com/9NYyENvYqt
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 26, 2020
The data the researchers analysed includes current hospitalisation and mortality rates, in addition to the age, gender and pre-existing health problems of patients.
Our analysis of #COVID19 is based on an extensive range of info & data sources including local & national governments, WHO, #socialdistancing policies, utilization data on hospital beds & ICU capacity, ICU demand in Italy, and age-specific deaths rates. https://t.co/iM5FfVzQlu pic.twitter.com/LULDf3vW71
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 27, 2020
The IHME model also predicts that up to 2,300 patients could die every day when the peak of the crisis hits.
“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies,” said Christopher Murray, IHME director.
“The trajectory of the pandemic will change — and dramatically for the worse — if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions.” he added.
Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of @IHME_UW, explains IHME's approach to #COVID19 hospital forecasting in the US: pic.twitter.com/hoDwa6wn63
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 26, 2020
The study found that at least 21 US states will run out of intensive care unit beds, and that at least 12 of those states need 50 percent or more beds to deal with the influx of patients that will occur.
We are grateful to @Microsoft’s #AIforHealth program for supporting our hosting of #COVID19 data visualizations in the @Azure cloud. Explore our viz »https://t.co/5biAggzYal pic.twitter.com/KRnXhq4YUm
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 27, 2020
Our #COVID19 forecast predicts that 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends:#Vermont#NewYork#NewJersey#Michigan#Massachusetts#Connecticut#Louisiana#Hawaii#Missouri#Indiana#Nevada
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 26, 2020
New estimates from researchers at @IHME_UW project peak hospital usage for #COVID19 patients to occur through April with significant variations by state. Find projections for your state with our new data visualization »https://t.co/5biAggzYal pic.twitter.com/Lvf4xqs9Yn
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 27, 2020
It’s a grim warning that the forecasters hope will spur action.
Based on our research, health systems can help address excess #COVID19 demand by:
◾Postponing elective procedures
◾Increasing the number of beds above licensed capacity
◾Establishing emergency field hospitals
◾Reducing staff-to-patient ratios»https://t.co/YWoEUc354R pic.twitter.com/51fYUJN0G4
— IHME at UW (@IHME_UW) March 27, 2020
“We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks,” said Murray.
At time of writing (March 27, am) the US now has more confirmed cases of coronavirus than any other country on the globe, including China. Some 86,000 are now confirmed to have the virus, with 1,300 deaths so far.
President Trump has suggested that this reflects a high rate of testing compared to other countries.
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