Jeremy Warner
Telegraph
November 3, 2010

  • A d v e r t i s e m e n t
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What happens, as seems more likely, if there isn’t one? The answer is that an awful lot of people are going to lose an awful lot of money.

We heard the first rumbles of trouble from these freshly gathering storm clouds last week when unexpectedly strong UK third-quarter growth caused a minor correction to gilt prices. Yet this was fast forgotten.

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The latest purchasing managers’ index figures, indicating rising confidence in the UK manufacturing sector, were completely ignored. Bond investors continue to look forward with growing certainty to a slow or nil-growth future, where interest rates and inflation remain subdued for years to come. It’s happened before – very low inflation and bond yields have persisted for decades in the past – so why not again?

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